Unionists – The Polls… The Polls
A survey from Redfield and Wilton Strategies, published on Wednesday the 13th of March 2024, claims that the SNP and Labour were neck-and-neck when it came to how Scots would vote in the upcoming General Election. This got me thinking on how polls can differ and from who is conducting them.
Redfield and Wilton Strategies is a global strategic consulting firm based in London that incorporates in-depth polling and market research to advise individuals and organisations. They proudly state that they can identify a wide range of potential supporters for any cause and then find the best message. Could this benefit Westminster agenda towards Scotland?
Polls try to answer the question such as "If the election were run today, who would you vote for?” .This is usually done by surveying a large group of people who are representative of the population as a whole, in this case 1000 Scottish people and then use statistical techniques to draw conclusions about the overall behaviour of voters, subject to some error. Polls are accurate when conducted properly and when they avoid systemic biases in how they choose people.
We have to remember that polls do not account for the impact of events between now and the general election, which this in itself is a major source of error. This also does not capture any idea of how likely voters attitudes are to change, so there is no way of coming up with a predictive probability of SNP or Labour winning.
Pollsters make their money when their polls get published, and “it’s not going to be close” doesn’t sell newspapers, anywhere near as much as “neck and neck” results and you can clearly see this in many newspapers etc. This would suggest that pollsters sway their sample populations surveyed toward the parts of the population most likely to give the “neck and neck” answer. Statistically valid within their parameters, but still biased enough to be dangerous for use by investors. Let’s use Brexit as an example. The Times had 51% leave and the Daily Telegraph had it at 54% stay.
Some people will say the only poll is the poll on the day that counts and yes that is the end result; however other people before the election look at the bookies predications. Bookies, or these days, online betting sites, have been a sensible gauge of the odds on an election outcome. Bookies are motivated to get the odds right. They have to get it right or as near as possible because they have their money where their mouths are. They have to stay up to date with market information, and receive live feedback constantly from the market every time somebody bets. Betters are also voters, so there is a considerable amount of inside information coming through in their betting activity, habits and attitudes.
Opinion polls suffer from two important disadvantages. The first is that bookmakers odds are available many times during a single day, opinion polls are infrequent and therefore do not constitute a near continuous time series. Secondly, opinion polls are collected by a number of different polling organisations. There are systematic differences between the findings of these organisations and because of these differences that exist then the opinion poll findings must be biased for at least all but one of the polling organisations.
On the 9th March 2023, The National Newspaper ran an article with its heading ‘Redfield & Wilton poll needs 'tightening up' after errors’. Pollster expert Mark McGeoghegan states that in the poll that Redfield & Wilton conducted there was spelling mistakes and they failed to include a Yes/No cross break in the tables. This would allow a glimpse into perceptions among people who voted for or against independence in 2014, however this was missing. Mark McGeoghegan states that questions could have also been worded better and that they should not be using non-neutral language as it is pejorative.
The fact of the matter is there is a General Election approaching, we will see a lot more polls and a lot more of SNP bad, Scotland talked down and branch office Labour as the saviours of the day. If we fall for Labours charm once again then we really do deserve what is coming. Let us not forget that Labour are the party who introduced the bedroom tax, sold hospitals to the private sector, did not build any housing when in power, brought in disability assessments, started tuition fees in 1998 etc. Starmer will be no friend to Scotland and Anas Sarwar will be put in his place, after all Starmer said in a recent interview that ‘Sarwar will do what he is told’. When the election arrives, please make the right decision and vote for Scotland.
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